The Geno Smith Dilemma
Geno Smith is one of the most polarizing players in the NFL… and for good reason. From threading the ball into unthinkable windows to truly head-scratching interceptions, Geno is a player that is just as adored as he is hated.
On March 7th, 2025, the football world was left stunned as Geno Smith was traded from the Seattle Seahawks to the Las Vegas Raiders for the 92nd overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft (the pick was then used to select quarterback Jalen Milroe from Alabama). This trade reunited Geno with former Seahawks’ head coach Pete Carroll, this time in Sin City. I believe that this pairing of Smith and Carroll is going to lead the Raiders to the playoffs, somewhere the franchise has only been twice since losing the Super Bowl in 2002.
This might seem like a bold claim, but the justification lies within the numbers. Before I get to my reasons why I think Geno is going to be a top-10 quarterback this season, it is important to understand how he got here.
The Rise and the Fall…
In 2013, the New York Jets selected a young gunslinger named Geno Smith with the 39th overall pick. Geno spent three seasons as the signal caller for the West Virginia Mountaineers, including a 42 touchdown and six interception senior season.
He left Morgantown a Mountaineer legend as he currently holds the records for passing yards and touchdowns in a career, season, and game. His greatest triumph was a 70-33 drubbing of Clemson in the 2011 Orange Bowl.
Smith entered the National Football League with high hopes and entered the 2013 season as the Jets’ starting quarterback. He started all 16 games and led New York to an 8-8 record, an improvement on their 6-10 2012 campaign. This isn’t to say that Geno played well however. He managed to keep his job for the next season and while he played better on the stat sheet, the Jets record was a dismal 4-12 that resulted in Geno getting replaced by journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick for the 2015 season.
Geno finished his career with the Jets in 2016. His record of 12-18 with the Jets over four seasons left much to be desired and the numbers he put up were somehow worse. In his two seasons as a starter, he had a completion percentage of 57.5% and a touchdown to interception ratio of 25:34. Simply put, not NFL quarterback material.
After departing the Jets, he found backup roles with the Giants and the Chargers before landing with the Seahawks in 2019. It wouldn’t be until the 2021 season and an unfortunate injury to a franchise legend that Geno would get another shot to start.
The Comeback
In week 5 of the 2021 season, Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson suffered a dislocated finger against the Los Angeles Rams that would cause him to miss the next four games.
Geno Smith stepped in to fill Wilson’s very large shoes. While he didn’t do anything special, there were signs of the success to come in the four games that Geno played.
March 8th, 2022 will forever be a day that goes down in infamy to Seahawks fans. It signaled the, necessary, end of an era that peaked with a Super Bowl win in 2014. On that day franchise legends Bobby Wagner and Russell Wilson departed Seattle. Wagner was released and Wilson was dealt to the Denver Broncos in a blockbuster deal. The departure of Wilson left a gaping hole at the quarterback position, a position that hadn’t been questioned since Wilson beat out veteran Matt Flynn in 2012.
There were two candidates to become the next starting quarterback of the Seattle Seahawks. One was Geno Smith, the journeyman who had played serviceably in Wilson’s absence the previous year. The other was Drew Lock, a former second round pick of the Denver Broncos acquired by the Seahawks in the package for Wilson. After a back and forth training camp battle, Geno Smith was named the starting quarterback heading in to the first week of the 2022 season. A week that culminated in the Seahawks hosting their former quarterback’s new team in a primetime matchup.
When the final whistle blew, the Seahawks were victorious against the Broncos. Geno Smith outdueled Russell Wilson 17-16, kickstarting a stellar 2022 campaign from the veteran quarterback. He lead the Seahawks to a 9-8 record and a playoff birth, in addition to claiming the Comeback Player of the Year Award. Geno made the Pro Bowl, finished ninth in MVP voting, lead the league in completion percentage with 69.8%, set the Seahawks record in passing yards in a season (which he would then break in 2024) with 4,282, and had a touchdown to interception ratio of 30:11.
Over the next two years as the starting Seahawks’ quarterback, Geno would play well, but never came close to those heights of the 2022 season.
After an especially disappointing 2024 season, Geno was sent to Las Vegas to become the Raiders’ starting quarterback. This begs the question, what do Geno’s prospects look like in the Silver and Black?
The Numbers
The numbers in green you WANT to be ranked high (1st, 2nd, 3rd etc)
The numbers in red you WANT to be ranked low (32nd, 31st, 30th etc)
The statistics above are separated into three different categories: Under Pressure, Kept Clean, and Not His Fault. Under Pressure and Kept Clean are very self explanatory, these are Geno Smith’s stat and rank among 25 quarterbacks (minimum 125 dropbacks under pressure) when he is pressured versus when he is not. Not His Fault are numbers attributed to the offensive line and are thus, not Geno’s fault.
Looking at these charts, Geno ranks highly in both stats you want to be good in and stats you do not want to be good in when pressured. He makes plenty of risky plays that pay off, but in 2024 he made more plays that were negative than positive. His percentage of snaps under pressure was 38.5% and his pressure percentage on straight dropbacks was 42.5%, both good for 2nd and 1st worst in the NFL respectively. So essentially under pressure, Smith was extremely inconsistent and he also happened to be under pressure the most in the NFL.
When comparing Smith’s Under Pressure and Kept Clean numbers, the numbers that you want to be good in are pretty consistent. He ranks consistently in the top-10 in places that you want to be, Big Time Throws and Adjusted Completion percentage for example. The numbers that you want to be bad in, are where there is a stark difference in his level of play. Smith jumps from 2nd in the NFL in interceptions to tied for 21st. The amount of turnover worthy plays dropped from 2nd in the NFL to 17th, tied with Joe Burrow and Josh Allen.
This brings me to the Not His Fault stats. The only stat in this category that Seattle wasn’t one of the two worst teams in the league at is QB Pressure Rate, which is the percentage of pressures attributed to the quarterback. Seattle was 5th in the NFL in this number, another reason why Geno is a better player than advertised. Terrible personnel mixed with an even worse offensive scheme is what lead the Seahawks’ disappointing 2025 season offensively and can be partially attributed to Geno’s poor season.
When kept clean, Geno Smith is a very efficient quarterback, the issue was he seldom was behind Seattle’s putrid offensive line. The addition of Grey Zabel plus change of offensive coordinator to Klink Kubiak is why I am optimistic about the Seahawks’ offense this season, but that can be saved for another time. Now moving on to why I think that Geno will excel with Las Vegas in 2025.
The Outlook
The 2024 Las Vegas Raiders were a disappointment in every phase of the game, but specifically on offense.
There is a reason that the team targeted Geno Smith in the offseason to be their starting quarterback. Last season, the Raiders ranked 30th in touchdown percentage, 26th in yards per attempt, and 27th in passer rating. They managed to place 13th in overall passing yard, but don’t be fooled by that number. Las Vegas was constantly behind in games and their pitiful attempt at a running game meant that they threw the ball a significant amount, the 4th most in the NFL in fact. Geno is going to remedy those numbers significantly.
Despite having one of the worst passing games in the NFL, the Raiders’ run game was somehow worse. They were undoubtedly the worst team in the NFL at running the football. They ranked 32nd with 1,357 rushing yards, 200 yards worst than the 31st ranked team. Their yards per carry was just as bad. They ranked 32nd with 3.6 yards per carry, 0.3 yards worst than the 31st Los Angeles Rams. To put the difference between the Raiders and Rams into perspective, the difference between 32nd and 31st is the same as the difference between 31st and 17th. There was a reason that Pete Carroll and general manager John Spytek decided to invest the 6th overall pick in blue-chip running back Ashton Jeanty.
Despite how terrible the Raiders offense was, their offensive line was surprisingly okay. Las Vegas ranked 20th in Pass Blocking Efficiency, and 20th in Sacks Allowed. Are the numbers good? Absolutely not. Are they better than Seattle’s? Undoubtedly.
Adding a potential superstar like Jeanty to the backfield is a huge boost to the Raiders’ top-heavy skill position group. Jakobi Meyers is their starting wide receiver and while he may not be a household name, Meyers is a very capable receiver. He ranked as the 19th best receiver according to PFF’s grading system, while ranking 12th and 17th in receptions and yards respectively. The main threat of the Raiders’ offense is 2nd-year tight end Brock Bowers, who is coming off of the greatest season by a rookie tight end ever.
A change of scenery was needed for Geno Smith and that is something that he is getting with the Las Vegas Raiders. Aided by a trio of Ashton Jeanty, Jakobi Meyers, and Brock Bowers in addition to a serviceable offensive line could be exactly what Geno needs to achieve or even surpass the standard he set in 2022. One thing that I know for certain is that the Raiders are going to be one of the most entertaining teams to watch in the NFL this coming season.
